Arnold Palmer Invitational cut line prediction 2024: Can McIlroy, Fowler make cut?

Making its second stop as a part of this year's Florida swing, the PGA Tour returned to Bay Hill Club & Lodge this week for one of the iconic events on the calendar each year, the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Even with the tour's flagship event on the near horizon, the PLAYERS Championship, a good portion of the world's best players made the journey to Orlando and Arnie's Place for the fourth signature event of the year.

The best expect a real test when they set foot on property each year and this year's championship proved no different early on. Some handled the stern examination well, including 2019 Open Championship winner, Shane Lowry, who set the early pace following a 6-under 66 on Thursday.

Saying the Irishman didn't have the best of records around Bay Hill coming into this week may have been an understatement. Lowry had missed the cut in five out of six starts at Bay Hill heading into this year's Arnold Palmer Invitational and per Justin Ray on social media, was a combined 19-over par at Bay Hill before his opening round of 66 on Thursday.

Meanwhile, players like Jordan Spieth survived the early trials and tribulations of a round at the King's Place, while others including recent winner of this year's Mexico Open at Vidanta, Jake Knapp, and last year's winner at Bay Hill, Kurt Kitayama, struggled in the early going.

With some other big stars, including Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Rickie Fowler, all struggling to get off to the types of starts they would have hoped at this year's Arnold Palmer Invitational, it left their status of being around for the weekend anything but assured. What number do they need to reach to be around for the weekend though? And exactly how many players will make this year's Arnold Palmer Invitational cut? Let's take a look.

Arnold Palmer Invitational cut rules: How many players make the cut in 2024?

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the second of three signature events that will implement a reduced cut of Top 50 players and ties at the halfway point.

As was also the case at last month's Genesis Invitational, any player within ten strokes of the leader following the conclusion of the second round will also make the cut in 2024. The Memorial Tournament in June will be the third signature event on the schedule this year to have a cut, the other five signature events in 2024 will guarantee all four rounds to their entire fields.

The cut line at Bay Hill hasn't reached even par or better in each of the last four editions of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Last year, with 120 players in the field, the cut was made at two-over par. Meanwhile, the cut mark also fell to +2 in 2021, while both 2022 and 2020 saw a cut take place at +3.

Let's now take a look at the cut line prediction for this year's Arnold Palmer Invitational and see if we can expect anything different with a reduced 69-man field this time around.

Arnold Palmer Invitational cut line prediction 2024: What will the cut be?

Heading into Friday's second round at Bay Hill, Data Golf is projecting a cut of +1 at the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. That mark is being given around a 34% chance of coming to fruition with the cut falling back to +2 given about a 32% probability. Meanwhile, the cut moving to even par for the first time in quite some time at Bay Hill is only being given about a 14% chance.

As things stand, a +1 cut line would be good news for players like Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Tommy Fleetwood, and Ludvig Aberg, all of whom find themselves right on that number going into the second round.

Meanwhile, the current mark could spell bad news for players including, Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Rickie Fowler, who would all potentially just miss out on playing the weekend at Bay Hill at the current number.

Of course, under the new format for 2024, there is still time for all of these players to make this year's cut with the 10-stroke rule in effect and a high likelihood that the majority of this week's field makes the cut barring an exceptional performance by the tournament leader.