Memorial Tournament cut line prediction 2024: Can Rickie Fowler, Spieth make the cut?

The Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village always attracts elite fields every year as one of the preeminent events on the calendar regardless of the status bestowed upon it by the PGA Tour. However, it certainly is fitting that such a prestigious event be awarded elevated status, which was the case this year as one of this season's signature events.

Arguably, outside of major championships, Jack's event is the one they all want to win. A historic and prestigious event with a massive $20 million prize purse on offer was bound to attract an elite field as one of the marquee events on the golfing calendar.

While big names including each of this year's major champions, Scottie Scheffler (Masters) and Xander Schauffele (PGA), predictably got off to fantastic starts once again, it was a Canadian in Adam Hadwin who took control at the top one week after this year's RBC Canadian Open. Others, including Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, and Wyndham Clark, to name a few, were left with plenty of work to do, however, just to make the cut at this year's Memorial Tournament.

Muirfield Village GC was always going to provide a stern test for the game's best players, and this year was no different with scoring averaging over par in round one for this week's 73-man field. Those who got off to slow starts on day one knew that they were going to have their work cut out for them to stick around for the weekend at one of the few signature events on the schedule that still implemented a cut after 36 holes of action in 2024.

With that being the case, fans were left wondering what some of their favorite players would need to do in order to make the weekend and what exactly the cut number at this year's Memorial Tournament might end up at. Let's take a look at the rules, format, projections, and predictions to determine what the cut number may be and who may be in danger of heading home early this week.

How many players make the cut at the Memorial Tournament?

For just the third time in 2024, a signature event on the PGA Tour will implement a cut after 36 holes of play. The Memorial Tournament follows in the footsteps of the Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this year as marquee events on the schedule to maintain some semblance of a traditional cut at the halfway point. The Top 50 players and ties will advance through to the weekend at the 2024 Memorial Tournament along with any player within ten strokes of the leader following the completion of two rounds at Muirfield Village. This continues the run of player-hosted invitationals using the historic rules that were widely implemented at golf's majors; including the Masters until 2020 when it became the last of the four to abolish the rule.

Historic cut line at the Memorial Tournament

Here is a look at the last five editions of the Memorial Tournament and what the cut line has been on each occasion at Muirfield Village.

The cut line has historically been over par at the Memorial Tournament with the last five years particularly maintaining a cut line number of around +2 or +3. There is a good chance the number will fall in that range once again in 2024.

2024 Memorial Tournament cut line prediction

With the first round of this year's Memorial Tournament officially in the books, Data Golf is projecting a cut line of +4 and giving it about a 35% chance of coming to fruition. As things stand, a cut line of +4 would be the highest cut at the Memorial Tournament in the last five years. Meanwhile, the mark moving to +5 is given about a 32% probability, a far likelier outcome according to Data Golf than the number moving to +3, which is only being given a 16% chance of being the number despite that being the official cut line two of the last four times at Muirfield Village.

2024 Memorial Tournament cut: Notable players on the cut line

A cut line of +4 would currently be good news for players including Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth, albeit with marginal room for error moving forward. Meanwhile, as things stand, the cut line would spell bad news for two of last year's major champions Wyndham Clark and Brian Harman, both of whom would be heading home early in an event with a limited cut to begin with.

Of course, there is still plenty of time for all of that to change, but those on the currently projected cut line bubble will know they have plenty of work still to be done on a difficult track if they hope to stick around for the weekend at the 2024 Memorial Tournament.