PGA Championship cut line prediction 2024: Can Tiger Woods, Rahm make the cut?

Major season is officially in full swing with the 106th PGA Championship finally underway roughly a month after Scottie Scheffler slipped on the Green Jacket for a second time at Augusta National in mid-April. The stage was set for the best players in the game to reunite once again.

Valhalla Golf Club, site of Rory McIlroy's last major victory in 2014, saw a large number of the world's best take advantage of historically easy conditions for a PGA Championship on day one. Chief amongst them was Xander Schauffele, who is making a habit of jumping out to early leads. One week after leading the way throughout the majority of the Wells Fargo Championship, Schauffele was at it again.

The 30-year-old, seeking that elusive first victory in a major, tied the 18-hole scoring record in a major championship after a breathtaking 9-under 62 in round one of this year's PGA Championship, a milestone Schauffele had already reached as recently as last summer's U.S. Open where he and Rickie Fowler tied Branden Grace's previous record-setting mark.

Sahith Theegala and Tony Finau opened with 6-under 65s to remain within touching distance of Xander Schauffele in the early going. Meanwhile, no fewer than fourteen others, including McIlroy, Scheffler, and defending champion Brooks Koepka, posted opening rounds of 67 or better on a day that saw scoring averages just a touch over par. Of course, it wasn't smooth sailing for everyone out on the course in round one.

While a large contingent took advantage of their scoring opportunities, others including Wyndham Clark (E), Ludvig Aberg (+1), Tiger Woods (+1), and Dustin Johnson (+2) struggled to get going early on and now find themselves with work to do just to stick around for the weekend in the year's second major; let alone contend for the Wanamaker Trophy.

With heavy rains expected as the week moves on and potential delays in the offing, it's anyone's guess as to what the potential cut line for the year's second major might be. Let's take a look at the 2024 PGA Championship cut line projection to find out what the number could be this week at Valhalla and what big names could potentially be in trouble of missing out on the weekend after slow starts on day one.

PGA Championship format and historic cut lines

The PGA Championship will see the Top 70 players and ties advance to the weekend following the conclusion of 36 holes of play. Unlike last month's Masters, the major does not implement a 'within ten strokes of the lead' rule, meaning the cut will officially be the Top 70 and ties only. This is different from the standard PGA Tour cut rules of Top 65 and ties and more than the Top 50 and ties that will make the cut at next month's U.S. Open. Both the PGA Championship and July's Open Championship will implement the Top 70 and ties rule in 2024.

Here is a look at the last five editions of the PGA Championship and what the cut has been on each occasion.

PGA Championship: 2024 cut line prediction at Valhalla

Following the conclusion of round one of the 2024 PGA Championship, Data Golf is projecting a cut line of -1 and giving it about a 37% chance of coming to fruition. As things stand, a cut line of -1 would be the lowest mark in the PGA Championship in its last five editions. Meanwhile, the currently projected number moving north to -2 is only being given a marginal chance at around 12% while the cut falling back to even par is currently a much more realistic probability at about a 36% chance.

Will Tiger Woods and other big names make the PGA Championship cut in 2024?

Playing for just the second time since last month's Masters, Tiger Woods got off to a great start despite two bogeys on his front nine. Signing for an opening 37, Woods made the turn and tacked on another two birdies to his tally. He was on pace for an under-par start before unfortunately dropping shots on his last two holes of the day to sign for an opening 1-over 72. He will likely need to shoot a 71 or better during the second round to have a chance of making the cut at this year's PGA Championship.

Some notable names including, Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Sam Burns, and Rickie Fowler, find themselves in the same position as Woods in needing a good second round to maintain any hopes of making the cut in the year's second major. Meanwhile, players including Joaquin Niemann and Dustin Johnson, both of whom finished at +2, and Phil Mickelson (+3), will likely need to produce something special to keep their PGA dreams alive for another couple of days.

Players including, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, and Jordan Spieth, find themselves in a better position as things currently stand with a decent second-round showing likely being enough to see them through to the weekend at the PGA Championship.