THE PLAYERS Championship cut line prediction 2024: Can Spieth, Hovland make cut?

Jordan Spieth - THE PLAYERS Championship
Jordan Spieth - THE PLAYERS Championship / Mike Ehrmann/GettyImages

The PGA Tour returned to TPC Sawgrass this week for the 50th edition of THE PLAYERS Championship and several big names made quick work of favorable scoring conditions in the early going of this year's championship.

Rory McIlroy got off to a flying start during a first round that was anything but dull for the four-time major champion. Just a week after a disappointing final round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, McIlroy opened with a 7-under 65 in round one at TPC Sawgrass.

The spectacular round included a ten-birdie barrage and a hint of controversy en route to a share of the early lead at this year's PLAYERS Championship. Xander Schauffele conjured up his own 65 on Thursday and a scorching hot Wyndham Clark threw his name in the mix, yet again, following the third round of 65 on day one.

Others, including World No.1 Scottie Scheffler and young Ryder Cup phenom, Ludvig Aberg, made their own mark in the early going. But it wasn't plain sailing for everyone during the first round of this year's PLAYERS.

Several big names who were just a touch off with their game on Thursday found the trek around TPC Sawgrass a bit more trying. Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris, Viktor Hovland, and Jordan Spieth will need to rebound in round two and hope the cut line shifts in their favor if they want to extend their stay over the weekend.

TPC Sawgrass is sure to provide a real test throughout the second round as players jockey to make this year's cut at THE PLAYERS, but what exactly will this year's cut land on? Let's take a look at this week's predicted cut line and find out what the key number could be when it's all said and done.

PLAYERS Championship format and historic cut line at TPC Sawgrass

Following multiple signature events already this season with either no cut or altered cut rules, this week's PLAYERS Championship sees a return to the norm. The Top 65 players and ties in this week's 144-man field will make the weekend at TPC Sawgrass following the conclusion of second round play.

Here is a look at the last five editions of THE PLAYERS Championship and what the cut line has been each year.

Year of Tournament

Official Cut Line

2023 PLAYERS Championship


2022 PLAYERS Championship


2021 PLAYERS Championship


2019 PLAYERS Championship


2018 PLAYERS Championship


PLAYERS Championship: 2024 cut line prediction at TPC Sawgrass

Update - Friday, 1:40 p.m. ET: As expected, TPC Sawgrass provided a stern test for players who were not clicking on all cylinders in the early going on Friday. The result has been a shift in the current cut line projection with Data Golf now giving -1 around a 70% chance of coming to fruition.

Meanwhile, the cut mark returning to the initial projection of -2 is only being given about a 25% probability now, while the cut dropping back to E is only given a slim chance at around 3%.

This is all great news for players including Max Homa and Rickie Fowler, who finished their second rounds and are in the house at the current number. It also leaves players like Patrick Cantlay, Keegan Bradley, Viktor Hovland, and Jordan Spieth, with work to be done throughout the remainder of the second round of this year's PLAYERS Championship if they hope to stick around for the weekend.

Original Projection: With the majority of the first round at this year's PLAYERS Championship officially in the books, Data Golf is projecting a cut line of -2 and giving it about a 37% chance of coming to fruition. As things stand, a cut line of -2 would be the lowest cut in a PLAYERS Championship in the last five editions.

That mark moving north to -3 is being given about a 12% probability, while the number falling back to -1 is being given around a 36% chance; only marginally less than the current number as things stand.

A -2 cut line would leave players including, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, and Shane Lowry, to name a few, in danger of narrowly missing out on the weekend. It would also leave Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, and Will Zalatoris on the outside looking in and needing to bounce back in the second round if they hope to extend their stay at the 50th edition of THE PLAYERS Championship.

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As things currently stand, Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler, among others, appear to have their work cut out for them just to make the weekend at TPC Sawgrass, let alone contend. Of course, thankfully for those players and their fans, there is still plenty of time for all of that to change for the better.