U.S. Open history both does and doesn't favor Sam Burns at Oakmont

Sam Burns' sizzling 65 at Oakmont Country Club on Friday has him in position to win his first major championship.
Sam Burns takes a swing during the second round of the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club
Sam Burns takes a swing during the second round of the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club | Patrick Smith/GettyImages

Coming into the 2025 U.S. Open, Sam Burns had posted just one top-10 finish in a major championship in 20 appearances, tying for ninth at this very same tournament a year ago at Pinehurst.

The Louisiana native got off to a decent enough start at Oakmont Country Club on Thursday, going through all the highs and lows this challenging golf course has to offer with five birdies, five bogeys, and a double en route to a 2-over round of 72, putting him six shots behind 18-hole leader J.J. Spaun, who fired a bogey-free 66.

But Burns had far fewer squares on his scorecard on Friday, his only dropped shot being a bogey at the par-4 first hole, which was his 10th hole of the day.

The 28-year-old carded four birdies on his opening nine, and following his bogey at the first, he added two more birdies over his next three holes before closing his day with five straight pars, the last of which was saved with a phenomenal 22-foot putt.

With a 5-under 65, Burns matched the third-lowest score at a U.S. Open at Oakmont and gained 9.78 total strokes on the field, the largest total since Brooks Koepka gained 10.06 in the opening round of the 2019 PGA Championship at Bethpage Black.

When all was said and done in the second round, his 3-under total was good enough for a one-shot lead on Spaun, who dropped back to 2-under for the championship with a 2-over 72 on Friday.

As such, Burns became the ninth player since 2000 to hold a one-shot lead heading into the final 36 holes of the U.S. Open. And from an overall standpoint, history is not on his side, as only two of the previous eight went on to win.

U.S. Open

Player

Course

Final Result

2006

Steve Stricker

Winged Foot

T6

2007

Ángel Cabrera

Oakmont

1

2008

Stuart Appleby

Torrey Pines

T36

2009

Ricky Barnes

Bethpage Black

T2

2016

Dustin Johnson

Oakmont

1

2020

Patrick Reed

Winged Foot

T13

2023

Rickie Fowler

Los Angeles Country Club

T5

2024

Ludvig Åberg

Pinehurst No. 2

T12

As you can see, however, history does favor Burns in the fact that the two who went on to win did so at Oakmont.

In 2007, Ángel Cabrera was at even par through 36 holes and held a one-shot advantage over Bubba Watson. Following a third-round 76, however, the Argentine found himself four shots back of Aaron Baddeley at the end of Round 3.

But with a final-round 69, Cabrera ultimately took the title at 5-over, besting Tiger Woods and Jim Furyk by a single stroke.

Nine years later, in 2016, Dustin Johnson was 4-under through two rounds and held a one-shot lead on Andrew Landry at the midway point. Like Cabrera, though, DJ failed to hold his advantage in the third round and entered the final 18 holes four shots back of Shane Lowry, who fired a brilliant third-round 65.

Lowry fell off in the final round, however, shooting a 6-over 76. Johnson, meanwhile, posted a 1-under 69 to get to 4-under, taking the tourney by three over the trio of Lowry, Furyk, and Scott Piercy.

Which group will Sam Burns join on Sunday? We'll find out soon enough.

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