The WM Phoenix Open, famously known as 'The People's Open,' returns to TPC Scottsdale this week. Predicting a winner at any tournament is always a challenge, but history suggests this event is slightly more predictable. TPC Scottsdale ranks as the fourth most predictive annual course on TOUR, with each of the last nine winners having previously recorded a top 10 finish here.
With that in mind, let’s break down some key categories: 'Horses for Courses'—players who have consistently performed well at this event, 'Donkeys for Courses'—those who have historically struggled, and 'Birdies'—golfers who excel in Birdies or Better %, a crucial stat in a tournament that typically demands a low winning score.
WM Phoenix Open: Horses
Players who consistently thrived at TPC Scottsdale.
Scottie Scheffler
The WM Phoenix Open is a defining chapter in Scottie Scheffler’s story. His breakthrough PGA TOUR victory came at TPC Scottsdale in 2022, where he defeated Patrick Cantlay in a playoff. Scheffler has played this event five times, missing the cut in his 2020 debut. Since then, he has dominated at this venue, finishing T7 in 2021, winning back-to-back titles in 2022 and 2023, and adding a T3 finish last year.
Justin Thomas
Justin Thomas has yet to win the WM Phoenix Open, but he’s been knocking on the door for years. He made his tournament debut in 2015 with a solid T17 finish before struggling in 2016 and 2017, missing the cut both times. However, he bounced back in 2018 with another T17 and has been a force at TPC Scottsdale ever since. Since 2018, Thomas has played this event every year, never finishing worse than T13, with three top 5 finishes to his name.
Sahith Theegala
Sahith Theegala made an impressive debut at the WM Phoenix Open in 2022, finishing T3. He faced some challenges the following year, finishing T39, but bounced back strong last season with a 5th-place finish, reaffirming his comfort at TPC Scottsdale.
Hideki Matsuyama
Hideki Matsuyama wasted no time making his mark at the WM Phoenix Open. In his 2014 tournament debut, he finished T4, then improved to a runner-up finish in 2015. A year later, he broke through for his first victory at TPC Scottsdale and successfully defended his title in 2017. Since then, Matsuyama has recorded three top 20 finishes and has never placed worse than T42, which came in 2021.
WM Phoenix Open: Donkeys
Players who struggle repeatedly at TPC Scottsdale.
Mackenzie Hughes
Mackenzie Hughes has struggled to find success at the WM Phoenix Open, missing the cut in all five of his appearances. His closest call came in 2018 when he fell just one shot short of making the weekend. After a promising opening-round 69, he faltered on Friday with a 73, narrowly missing the cut.
Peter Malnati
Peter Malnati has struggled at the WM Phoenix Open, missing the cut in five of his six appearances. His lone weekend finish came in 2022, when he placed 65th.
Cheng Tsung (CT) Pan
C.T. Pan has been a regular at the WM Phoenix Open, playing every year since 2017 except for 2023. His tournament debut ended in a missed cut, but from 2018 to 2020, he made the weekend, though without much success, finishing T62, T60, and T63. Unfortunately, in his three most recent appearances, he has missed the cut each time.
WM Phoenix Open: Birdies
Three of the last four winners of the WM Phoenix Open have posted a winning score of -19 or better. To contend this week, players will need to be aggressive and rack up birdies. Here’s a look at golfers who excel in Birdies or Better %.
Sepp Straka
Sepp Straka has been on fire this season, claiming one victory at The American Express and adding two top-20 finishes in his first four starts. He was the 54-hole leader last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am but faltered on Sunday, shooting a 72. Currently ranked 5th on the PGA TOUR in Birdies or Better %, Straka has competed in the WM Phoenix Open three times. However, he’s missed the cut twice (2020 and 2021) and finished 66th in his most recent appearance in 2022.
Justin Thomas
Justin Thomas currently ranks 7th in Birdies or Better % this season. He’s played in three events so far, finishing T26 at The Sentry, 2nd at The American Express, and T48 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. As mentioned earlier, Thomas has an impressive course history at the WM Phoenix Open and is certainly a contender this week as he seeks his first win since capturing the PGA Championship at Southern Hills in 2022.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Matt Fitzpatrick has competed twice this season, finishing T24 at The Sentry and T48 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week. He currently ranks 10th in Birdies or Better % for the season. Fitzpatrick also has solid course history at the WM Phoenix Open, with finishes of T10 in 2022, T29 in 2023, and T15 in 2024.