ZOZO Championship Expert Picks

"Expert Picks" may have been a title that I let go to my head over the last couple of weeks. The proof is in the pudding as we say, with our second straight winless week. At least we had a few close calls with the Black Desert Championship picks. The Shriners was like the Chicago White Sox lineup all year long; a swing and a miss. Three missed cuts and a T23 on our winner pick was what we have to show for it.

So we consider this week our "humbled, but get back on your feet" week of plays. This will be no small feat as well, with the across-the-world travel all these players will be experiencing in Japan. So while we will be placing a winner bet, we will also be prioritizing the top twenty finishes. So let's take a look at the course these professionals will be tackling and give you some winners for the week.

The Course - Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, Japan

Home-field advantage was a real thing at Narashino Country Club last year. Five Japanese players finished inside the top 20, so familiarity was an asset for sure. Another thing that is an asset this week, which is not always the case on tour, is making pars. With a winner at only -14, and the next closest player being at -8, scoring at this event is not always crazy low. While the first two years produced a -23 and -19 winner, the last three years have been -15, -15, and -14, so scoring has dipped. While typical events you need to make 5+ birdies a round, this is a course where making 3-4 birdies, with not many bogies, is at a premium.

So what are the statistics to target this week when it comes to placing your bets? When you look at previous winners, ball striking is certainly a skill that these men possessed. Morikawa, Bradley, Matsuyama, Cantlay, and Woods, were all players that were striking the ball with elite precision at the time. A Par 70 at just under 7100 yards also means Par 3 and 4 scoring are numbers to look at. The fairways are tight here, so driving accuracy is certainly an asset as well. And finally, scrambling is certainly a skill to hone in on. Limiting mistakes on a course with so much trouble is a must. So which players embody these skills the most?

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Golf betting record: 2-10-0 for -1.7 Units (Follow Us On Betstamp @CompetitiveHedge)

ZOZO Championship Picks For Winner & Top 20

Winner Pick For The ZOZO Championship (0.1 Units): Si Woo Kim (+3300)

Si Woo fits my statistics model to a tee this week. Calling it a model may make me sick, but watching Kim strike the golf ball, both off the tee and from the fairway, cures all nausea. He was top 30 in driving accuracy on tour and top 40 in both strokes gained total and scrambling. The statistic that impresses me the most though is being top 30 in scoring average and top 15 in strokes gained tee to green. Now Si Woo is South Korean, so being in Japan will feel like a regional home tournament for him I am sure. He was top 20 here in 2021 and played quite well at the Presidents Cup. Given he checks off so many boxes for us, we are gonna check off 0.1 units on him to win this event.

Top 20 Pick For The ZOZO Championship (0.4 Units): Joel Dahmen (+365)

There may not be more of an everyday, likable tour player than Joel Dahmen. Now when you get featured on Full Swing two seasons in a row and steal the show, that is going to happen. But someone should have stolen that extra club out of his bag in Las Vegas before it cost him four shots. He swiftly withdrew from the event, and this is quite frankly gut check time for Joel. If he and Gino want to be on tour full time next season he is going to need a strong result here. I think we see a dialed-in and focused Joel, one that was 27th on tour in strokes gained approaching the green. He was T16 here in 2022, we expect another strong showing in front of the Japanese fans.

Top 20 Pick For The ZOZO Championship (0.5 Units): Tom Hoge (+135)

Really debated having Hoge as my winner this week. What held me off on it was that he is not a household name, which the previous five winners were. Make no mistake about it though, Tom Hoge is a stick and has one of the purest swings on tour. He may not be in the fairway as much as we would like, but he certainly checks off other boxes. The one that jumped out to us is that he is fourth on tour in strokes gained approaching the green. So even when he is missing fairways, he is still gaining shots with his approach game. Throw in his twelve top-25 finishes last season and we think this is a recipe for success. All aboard the Hoge train!

Top 20 Pick For The ZOZO Championship (0.5 Units): J.J. Spaun (+130)

Top 10 in Japan last year, we think J.J. is going back-to-back top 20s. Even the previous year finishing T25 has us very confident in this play. Making cuts has also not been an issue for Spaun recently, just putting together a top 20 has been absent. What I love is Spaun's ability to hit greens (29th in greens in regulation), and hit it close (15th in proximity to the hole). Strokes gained total and strokes gained tee to green are above average in this field as well. So long as his putter is even remotely average we expect this one to cash.