The 2015 Greenbrier Classic Fantasy Sleeper Picks


The PGA Tour make a stop by White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia for the Greenbrier Classic. The host course is the TPC Old White and yes, I know, the jokes write themselves.

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The theme this week is to go with golfers who are long and can putt really well. I’m not too worried about hitting fairways because TPC Old White is the most forgiving course on Tour in terms of hitting fairways.

The greens, meanwhile, are pretty tough. Or, at least, tough than what you might think. Which is kind of surprising considering that this is a course you can go low at. The greens are undulated so you will want to target good putters.

I’ve got four picks this week and so with that here are the Greenbrier Classic fantasy sleeper picks for this week.

Aaron Baddeley– For his price I really like Aaron Baddeley this week. Baddeley is just about the cheapest golfer on the list and I see a lot of value in him.

Baddeley has only played the Greenbrier Classic twice in the five years, but this is a tournament that should suit him well.

As we talked about above, TPC Old White has very forgiving fairways. This bodes well for Baddeley as he doesn’t hit fairways frequently. Baddeley only hits 48% of fairways, which is good for 187th on the PGA Tour.

With forgiving fairways instead of being in the rough all the time, Baddeley could hit more fairways than usual. If he does, then he should be in the clear for some possible low numbers.

The closer Baddeley gets to the green, the better he performs. When “Going for the Green – Birdie or Better” Baddeley is 10th on the PGA Tour.

Baddeley’s “Going for the Green” percentage ranks 40th on Tour and Baddeley is an absolutely superb putter as he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Hudson Swafford– Hudson Swafford had a disappointing second round last week that cost him a chance to play the weekend.

With the missed cut last week that may make people think twice about including him in their lineup. So, Swafford could be a nice little against-the-grain pick this week.

The statistics show that he has the kind of game that bodes well here at the TPC Old White. Swafford is 28th on the PGA Tour in driving distance, 36th in Greens in Regulation, and 31st in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Overall, a real solid golfer. A chink in his armor, however, is his accuracy. Swafford is 66th on Tour in accuracy and has a -.071 Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green. But, as we talked about, accuracy may not play as big of factor this week.

When you look at some his missed cuts, they have come at ball striking courses: Colonial, Copperhead, Riviera. But, at more forgiving tournaments like the Zurich Classic, Valero Texas Open, Open, and the Arnold Palmer Invitational Swafford has had a lot of success.

Morgan Hoffmann– I’ve been pretty high on Morgan Hoffmann for the most part of the year and so when he gets discounted at a price like this I’m pretty happy.

Hoffmann’s numbers are pretty similar to Swafford’s numbers in some areas. Hoffmann is 37th off the tee, 29th in Strokes Gained: Putting, and he only hits 53% of fairways.

With similar stats come similar results. Hoffmann finished 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Hoffmann finished T-36 at the Zurich Classic, and on the flip side. Hoffmann also missed the cut at the Valspar Championship.

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Swafford and Hoffmann are basically two peas in a pod. If you like one, you may as well take the other and I like them both this week.

Charlie Beljan– This last pick is one where I feel I should just mention just because Charlie Beljan looks good on paper.

Beljan kind of has that feel of: “He’s so good here and has a discounted price that I must have him,” sort of thing and everybody takes him and he ends up burning everyone.

It happens week in and week out on the PGA Tour that I can’t help, but give Beljan a disclaimer this week.

Sure, Beljan bombs the ball a mile, has played decently of late, has played extremely well here, and is very cheap, but just beware. Sure things on paper aren’t guarantees.

Next: Greenbrier Classic Power Rankings