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The 2020 Masters: Who’s coming in hot

By Bill Felber

THOUSAND OAKS, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 24: Xander Schauffele of the United States looks on from the tenth tee during the third round of the Zozo Championship @ Sherwood on October 24, 2020 in Thousand Oaks, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
THOUSAND OAKS, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 24: Xander Schauffele of the United States looks on from the tenth tee during the third round of the Zozo Championship @ Sherwood on October 24, 2020 in Thousand Oaks, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /
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As they head to the Masters, we take a look at ten players with the recent track records to win at Augusta.

Despite its delayed start, the 2020 Masters will feature the tournament’s usual strong field. Some of the participants, however, will be coming in hotter than others.

And although golf tournaments are notoriously difficult to predict, the best indicator of future performance is usually recent past performance. That makes these 10 players, hot based on recent performance, the most likely candidates to be fitted for a green jacket by week’s end.

The rankings are based on each player’s finish in his 10 most recent PGA Tour events dating back to the June restart.

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You will also notice at least one prominent contender who’s not included. Bryson DeChambeau may be the reigning U.S. Open champion, but his track record has been too inconsistent to be reliable. In his last 10 events, he has two wins and three other top 10s, but also two missed cuts and tied for 50th at the BMW.

10. Hideki Matsuyama: His tie for second at the Houston Open was Matsuyama’s best finish since the restart, and one of six top 25s in that period. A missed cut at last month’s Shriners was certainly a stumble, but a rare one.

9. Scottie Scheffler: Scheffler is the only Masters rookie to make this list of 10 hottest players. Unfortunately, his most recent play has been lukewarm. His last five starts include nothing better than when he finished t-17 at the Zozo. He also missed the cut at the Shriners.

But his performance in pressure events verifies that Scheffler can get Augusta-level hot. In a one-month stretch during August, he tied for fourth at the PGA, tied for fourth again at the Northern Trust, tied for 20th at the BMW, and came home solo fifth at the Tour Championship.

8. Webb Simpson: Simpson’s victory at June’s RBC Heritage technically doesn’t count toward this evaluation since it came 11 starts ago, one beyond the cutoff. But while his last 10 haven’t reached that pinnacle, they’ve been good. He tied for third at the Wyndham, and in seven of his most recent 10 starts he’s finished top 20. So he’s been consistent.

What he hasn’t done is be spectacular. In fact, Simpson has largely prepared for Augusta by resting. In his only two starts since tying for eighth at the U.S. Open, he tied for 13th at the Shriners and for 17th at the Zozo. That means we know Simpson will contend at a top 20 level; we don’t know whether he’ll contend at a championship level.

7. Tony Finau: A 24th place finish in Houston may not sound like much of an endorsement. But it encapsulates much of Finau’s recent play. In 10 starts since the Memorial, he has four top 10s and two other top 25s. That’s a decent record of at least being on the fringes of contention.

Finau can go bad. His recent track record also includes a missed cut at the Northern Trust and a 65th at the FedEx St. Jude.

6. Rory McIlroy: McIlroy’s recent performance chart is much like Simpson’s. Since the restart, he’s made every cut, and his record includes ties for eighth at both the Tour Championship and the U.S. Open. That’s two pretty strong endorsements. What he has not recently done is put himself in a position to actually win.

His last victory came almost exactly a year ago at the WGC-HSBC Champions. Since his Open showing – a dozen strokes behind DeChambeau, for the record – he too has made just two starts. He tied for 21st at the CJ Cup and for 17th at the Zozo. A Masters victory is the only missing line on McIlroy’s major resume. He obviously has the ability to win; does he have the present form?

5. Patrick Reed: The 2018 Masters champion has been a consistent force since the restart. But he also lacks a true contending finish, his best having come at the Tour Championship when he tied McIlroy for eighth. He was also ninth at the Wyndham.

Reed’s game plan has involved hovering on the fringes of contention and then hoping for the best. Since the restart, that approach has brought him seven top-20 finishes. He has not, however, displayed any sort of closing rush.  It also should be noted that aside from 2018, he’s never done especially well at Augusta, his next best showing being a tie for 22nd in 2015.

4. Jon Rahm: The Masters is most likely to come down to a battle among four hot players, Rahm being one of them. Since the restart, he’s won twice, at the Memorial and the BMW, when he spectacularly holed that lengthy putt to take down Dustin Johnson. At the Tour Championship, Rahm finished fourth.

The fault in his record lies in a trio of decent but not great recent showings. He tied for 23rd at the U.S. Open, finished 17th at the CJ Cup, and tied for 28th at the Zozo. Rahm obviously has the game to contend for the title; what he needs to do is re-establish the form he displayed during that great end-of-summer run.

3. Justin Thomas: Winner of the FedEx St. Jude in July, Thomas has been among the Tour’s most consistent performers since the restart. Aside from that victory, his 10 most recent events include runners-up at the Workday, the Tour Championship and the Zozo. Thomas, in other words, is hot.

That momentum, combined with his obvious ability, makes Thomas among the premier bets to walk down the 18th fairway Sunday in title contention. That prospect is enhanced by his consistency. Thomas has not finished outside the top 50 in any tournament since the Workday. Although he has not yet contended at Augusta, he has steadily improved there, finishing T-39, T-22, T-17, and T-12 in his four previous starts. He’s not only hot, but he’s also trending.

2. Dustin Johnson: Johnson rose to world No. 1 on the strength of a dominant summer. He finished second to Collin Morikawa at the PGA, he won the Northern Trust, finished second to Rahm at the BMW, won the Tour Championship, and came home sixth at the U.S. Open. He had previously won the Travelers in July.

He also answered questions about his playing shape with a T-2 at Houston, where he returned after being idle for most of the fall by Covid. That leaves only the final concern about his tendency to be meteoric.  In June he missed cuts at both the Schwab and the Memorial. Is he past that?

1. Xander Schauffele: Like Thomas, Schauffele is coming in relatively hot. His four most recent starts include a tie for second at the Tour Championship, a fifth at the U.S. Open, a runner-up at the CJ Cup, and a tie for 17th at the Zozo.

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Schauffele hasn’t won since taking the Tournament of Champions the first weekend of January 2019 in Hawaii. But he has been a remarkably steady performer, with 11 consecutive Top 25 showings. It’s also worth keeping in mind that he has adapted well to Augusta, including a runner-up to Tiger Woods in 2019. That plus his recent Major track record – seven top 10s since 2017, fifth at this year’s U.S. Open, and t-10 at the PGA – make him a solid choice to be at or near the top at the finish.

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