2021 Valspar Championship: Dark Horses

Before I jump into this week’s 2021 Valspar Championship, I wanted to do a quick recap for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. My three dark horses were Sam Ryder & Doc Redman, Akshay Bhatia & Scott Piercy, and Jhonattan Vegas & Andres Romero. Ryder & Redman finished 14-under par in a tie for 17th. The other two pairings were upsetting because they started off in a pretty great spot Thursday, and just went below the cutline on Friday. Vegas & Romero especially would have smashed at their price point if they made the cut. It was a tricky week overall because I had a hard time finding value and the final results of the tournament show the same, which is that most of the higher priced teams finished at the top.

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This week, the PGA Tour is heading to Innisbrook Resort – Copperhead in Palm Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship. Last time we had this tournament was in 2019, where Paul Casey became a back-to-back champion. We saw some longshots like Ryan Armour, Austin Cook, Luke Donald, Denny McCarthy, and Scott Stallings all come inside the top 10. These are the so called dark horses that you want to find each week.

This week I will be providing three dark horses, meaning players that are longshots, but could play really well for their salary. These dark horses are golfers that are $7,500 and below. Also I use DraftKings, so these prices will be for their website, but the players can be used on FanDuel as well.

Dark Horse Number 1

Denny McCarthy ($7,500) – Denny is one of my dark horses because he has been playing great lately. His last time here in 2019, he came in 9th. That was two years ago, but it is something you cannot ignore. He did not play in 2018 or 2017. His putter like usual is working great and evening though putting is important every week, it is one of my key stats here. I am riding the hot streak and hoping for another top finish from Denny.

Last Five Finishes on Tour: 13, 34, 3, 55, 26

Last Three Finishes Here: 9, DNP, DNP

Key Stats:

SG Approach – 145

Par 4 Scoring Average – 115

SG Putting – 42

SG Tee-to-Green – 104

Dark Horse Number 2

Doug Ghim ($7,300) – Ghim is another one of my dark horses because of his recent stats. He is inside of the top 30 in three of the four key stats. His recent finishes are decent with the best one being a 29th, four starts ago. In a daily fantasy aspect he is averaging 60 fantasy points over the past five tournaments. He is someone that I am going to play because of his high upside due to the key stats.

Last Five Finishes on Tour: 33, 44, MC, 29, 36

Last Three Finishes Here: DNP, DNP, DNP

Key Stats:

SG Approach – 27

Par 4 Scoring Average – 23

SG Putting – 104

SG Tee-to-Green – 18

Dark Horse Number 3

Tom Hoge ($7,000) – Despite the back to back missed cuts here, Hoge might be my favorite of the dark horses. He has been playing well lately with his last finish being a 25th at the RBC Heritage. His stats for his price point show that he should be an incredible value play. Getting a guy like him at this price will help you get to guys like DJ, Paul Casey, or Corey Conners. This is a great spot for Hoge to continue on his little streak of great golf.

Last Five Finishes on Tour: 25, 12, MC, 22, MC

Last Three Finishes Here: MC, MC, DNP

Key Stats:

SG Approach – 29

Par 4 Scoring Average – 17

SG Putting – 81

SG Tee-to-Green – 69