2021 The Open Championship: Dark Horses
Before I jump into this week’s tournament, I wanted to do a quick recap for the John Deere Classic. My three dark horses were Chez Reavie, Scott Stallings, and Roger Sloan. It could have been a very solid week for me as my three dark horses all made the cut, but my two high end plays, Harman and Noren both missed the cut. Reavie ended in a tie for 18th at 13-under, Stallings ended in a tie for 55th at -6, and Sloan ended in 71st at 6-over par. Sloan was playing pretty well through the first two rounds, but fell off on the weekend going a combined 9-over par. Reavie was in contention, but went even par on Sunday. Disappointing, but as dark horses it is not the worst results after already making the cut.
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This week, the PGA Tour is heading to Royal St. George’s Golf Club in Sandwich, Kent, England for The Open Championship. This will be our fourth and final major for the season. Being a major obviously means the top players in the world will hard to beat out, but we always still see some longshots make a run. In 2019, we saw Shane Lowry win at Royal Portrush. Lee Westwood was a longshot that found his way into a tie for 4th. He is also a guy that I am eyeing for this week.
This week I will be providing three dark horses, meaning players that are longshots, but could play really well for their low salary. These dark horses are golfers that are $7,500 and below. Also I use DraftKings, so these prices will be for their website, but the players can be used on FanDuel as well.
Dark Horse Number 1
Guido Migliozzi ($7,100): Guido is one of my dark horses and a guy that I think has a very high ceiling. He is phenomenal lately on the Euro tour and at his two recent PGA outings. He has never played and Open, but in his last five outings on the Euro tour, his best performances were two second place finishes. How can you not back a guy like that? Also he is pretty great when it comes to DK scoring. He is averaging 91 DK points in his last five outings. At $7,100 if he is anywhere that number, he is looking incredible! Definitely my most exciting play while doing research.
Last Five Finishes on Tour: 35th (Euro), 13th, 4th, 2nd (Euro), 2nd (Euro)
Last Three Open Finishes: No outings at The Open
Key Stats:
SG Approach: 47th (Euro Website)
SG Around the Green: 82nd (Euro Website)
Scrambling: 31st (Euro Website)
Sand Save Percentage: 130th (Euro Website)
Dark Horse Number 2
Branden Grace ($7,200): Grace is the second of my dark horses because he has recently had two amazing weeks with a 7th and a 4th. He seems to be rounding into some form and looks pretty good in three of the four key stats when it is compared to his salary. This is a guy I am seeing people talk about, so he might be more popular, but if he does play really well than it is worth the high ownership.
Last Five Finishes on Tour: 54th (Euro), 7th, 4th, MC, 38th
Last Three Open Finishes: T51, MC, T6
Key Stats:
SG Approach: 71st
SG Around the Green: 38th
Scrambling: 81st
Sand Save Percentage: 130th
Dark Horse Number 3
Lee Westwood ($7,500): I have Westy as my final dark horse because I love this guy at majors. He might not be a JT or Rahm, but this guy always competes in the four majors. Take the Englishman overseas and compete on back in England…SIGN ME UP! This guy is going to perform this week and pay off his salary. He is not to hot in the key stats, but he has been playing solid lately especially the 35th place finish at the Scottish Open.
Last Five Finishes on Tour: 35th (Euro), 46th, MC, 71st, 21st
Last Three Open Finishes: T4, T61, T27
Key Stats:
SG Approach: 94th
SG Around the Green: 140th
Scrambling: 184th
Sand Save Percentage: 154th