2022 AT&T Byron Nelson: Complete Breakdown And Picks To Win

The world’s best head to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, for the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson.

TPC Craig Ranch could not be more different than TPC Potomac, the course that hosted the Wells Fargo Championship last week. Potomac was short and difficult and punished players for missing the fairway. Craig Ranch is long and easy. Five of the top six players on the leaderboard last year finished in the bottom half of driving accuracy amongst players who made the cut for the tournament. Birdies will be bountiful and that tends to lead to a dull viewing experience, but the Byron Nelson has an elite field playing this week.

The Field at the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson

The fields have been rather weak as of late but with the second major of the year looming next week, seven of the top 13 players in the OWGR are teeing it up this week. Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, and Hideki Matsuyama are playing for the first time since the Masters.

World #1 Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, and Xander Schauffele all recently played in the Zurich Classic but that was a team event. The only player in the top 13 who has played in a stroke-play event since Augusta is Jordan Spieth who won the RBC Heritage three weeks ago in his last start.

Brooks Koepka and defending champion K.H. Lee are also playing. As are Jason Kokrak, Talor Gooch, Hudson Swafford, Tom Hoge, Joaquin Niemann, Ryan Brehm, and JJ Spaun who have all won on tour already this year.

This is the last opportunity for players who have not already qualified for the PGA Championship next week to make the field. The only way to do so is by winning this event. Former Open Champion and current NBC golf analyst, Justin Leonard, is playing his first event since 2017. Leonard will be eligible to play on the Champions Tour when he turns 50 next month.

TPC Craig Ranch hosts the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson

TPC Craig Ranch features wide fairways, large greens, and there isn’t much of a penalty for missing the fairway. There are quite a few water hazards on and throughout the course, but most of them won’t see a single ball all week.

This tournament is the definition of a birdie fest. Only six holes played over par last year and three of them were the par-3s over 210 yards. The other 12 holes all played under par and three of the par-5s would’ve played closer to par as par-4s. The cutline last year was -6 and K.H. Lee won with a score of -25.

The only potential defense this course has is the weather and wind, so keep an eye on the forecast this week. Last year McKinney received a ton of rain the week before the tournament. Soft conditions and receptive greens contributed to the easy scoring conditions. The course should play firmer and faster this year so scoring could be slightly more difficult this year, but the expectation is for the course to still play well under par.

Key Stats 

Off-the-tee, distance, and accuracy didn’t seem to have any correlation to success here last year so I’m not going to look at any driving stats. The two categories I’m going to focus on this week are approach and scoring stats. Easier courses are much harder to predict so I’m going to keep it simple this week but with an unorthodox approach. Call me crazy but in a pitch and putt golf tournament, I’m not going to look at putting at all.

I really don’t like to look at putting numbers. The guys who win golf tournaments will usually gain a ton of shots on the green. KH Lee was 178th out of 219 players last year in putting before this tournament. He was losing .35 shots on the greens per round before gaining 1.13 per round at TPC Craig Ranch last year. Granted, he had poor numbers across the board, which just goes to show how hard golf is to predict.

Keegan Bradley was 142nd out of 146 players in putting before last week. He led the Wells Fargo field gaining 9.7 strokes on the greens, which was nearly two shots more than the next closest player. Jordan Spieth lost over 2.5 strokes putting at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago and still won. That’s a rare exception but I firmly believe that ball-striking numbers are more indicative of success than putting numbers.

Dave Johnson can make a putt on the first try that pros are struggling with. Can Dave Johnson stick an approach from 200 yards out of the rough closer than any of these guys? I rest my case. Below is a list of the top 10 in the field over the last 24 rounds in approach and a few key scoring stats as well as K.H. Lee’s result when he won. The strokes gained: total column is adjusted for easy scoring conditions.

Picks to win the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson

The purpose of this article is to highlight specific players that can win early in the week. Be sure to check out WynnBet later in the week for actual odds.

I’m completely fading the top of the board this week. With the PGA Championship next week, the top players may have their focus elsewhere. Rory McIlroy missed the cut at the Valero the week before the Masters. Hideki Matsuyama withdrew while on the cut line. Both players then went on to have high finishes at Augusta. Having the weekend off will give players more time to prepare at Southern Hills so don’t be surprised if a couple of big names miss the cut here.

Joaquin Niemann: He’s checking the boxes this week. He’s top 15 in the field in approach, birdie or better, and par-5 scoring. He’s had good finishes in low-scoring events in the past and he’s played the best on comparable courses.

Jhonattan Vegas: He’s 6th in approach, 6th in birdie or better, and 1st in par-5 scoring over his last 24 rounds. He finished top 10 here last year with an even-par round. He lost six shots off-the-tee and gained 10 on approach last week. Driving won’t cause him many problems this week so if his irons remain dialed in, he’ll give himself a chance to contend.

Marc Leishman:  He’s had poor finishes in his last four outings but all four of those courses are demanding off-the-tee. Leishman tends to struggle driving the ball but that shouldn’t cause too much of an issue for him here. The irons and putter have carried him so far this season and that’s all you need on this course.

Adam Scott:  Similar to Leish, the driver has given Scott problems at times. He’s gained on approach in six of his last seven. The only tournament he lost on approach was the Players and those windy conditions were brutal so I’m willing to look past that. He’s one of the better longer iron players in the field and he has good birdie or better numbers too.

Sebastian Munoz:  He’s one of the better ball-strikers in this elite field. He’s 12th in birdie or better and 13th in greens in regulation. He’s been steady as of late with six consecutive finishes between 21st and 39th. My only concern is he tends to struggle when he’s in or close to the lead on Sunday. He needs to win to make the PGA Championship and a major without Sebastian Munoz is like Christmas without Santa Claus.

Kurt Kitayama:  He’s second in the field in birdie or better and third in approach. He’s in good form and he’s been in contention on Sunday in his last two starts. He has a second and third-place finish in his last six events. Prior to those six events, he had missed five cuts in a row. If you told me there’s a 50-50 chance he misses the cut by 10 or is in contention on Sunday with no in between, I’m more than happy to sprinkle on that at long odds this week.