The season’s second major is already here, and there are plenty of great storylines to follow at the 2025 PGA Championship, one of which is the golf course itself.
Quail Hollow Club has long been a staple on the PGA Tour and has always presented its fair share of challenges to players, which obviously have to be taken into consideration when making picks for your office pool.
It’s always easy to take Scottie Scheffler in any pool, but he may not be a great choice this week, especially since it's safe to assume the majority of people will pick him. That said, we're thinking you might be able to gain a valuable edge if you consider (or don't consider) the players below instead.
Tier 1
Rory McIlroy—Even if Rory McIlroy weren’t as hot as he is this year, he would still be a big favorite based on his experience at Quail Hollow. He’s won four times on this course throughout his career, including last year, and also owns the course record, shooting a 10-under 61 back in 2015. With conditions expected to be soft after heavy rain, it should be easy for Rory to get close to pins and make a boatload of birdies.
Bryson DeChambeau—Despite playing for LIV Golf, Bryson DeChambeau's performances in the majors have been remarkable, as he clearly still has the talent to succeed and be competitive. His distance will be a huge advantage on this long course, so as long as his putter cooperates, we should see him in contention on Sunday afternoon. He finished second in last year's event and recently tied for fifth at The Masters; it's safe to say he’s in “the zone”.
Justin Thomas—JT is back as a Tier 1 contender. He’s been playing great this year with three top-5s in his last four starts, including a win at the RBC Heritage, his first in three years. As long as he avoids a blow-up round, he should be near the top of the leaderboard all week. He’s also a two-time PGA Championship winner, the first victory coming on this very same course eight years ago, which will help his confidence.
Avoid: Collin Morikawa—Also a past champion, Morikawa is trending in the wrong direction. He’s not playing badly this year, but he’s not a major contender. If he were in a lower tier, his outlook would be different, but being ranked alongside McIlroy, Scheffler, Schauffele, DeChambeau, etc., is a bit of a reach right now.
Tier 2
Tommy Fleetwood—Fleetwood should always be a pick until he finally wins. He’s easily the best player not to have a win on the PGA Tour, let alone a major, so it’s only a matter of time. He’s not the longest hitter, so he must focus on hitting fairways this week, but his short game is world-class, which is what you need to win a major at a course like this. If nothing else, he’s a top-20 guy and will be a reliable pick in any pool.
Jordan Spieth—This is a bit of a long shot and maybe shouldn’t be a Tier 2 pick, but the reward outweighs the risk. After watching Rory complete his career Grand Slam, the spotlight is now on Jordan Spieth, and I’m sure he wants to put all the naysayers to rest. Just wanting it isn’t enough. The only thing that matters in golf is the scorecard, and his score has been getting lower and lower this year. He’s shot 70 or better in his last 14 competitive rounds; that’s some mighty fine golf.
Shane Lowry—If you’re looking for a guy on a hot streak, then Lowry should be on your list. He’s got eight top-20 finishes this year, including last week's close call at the Truist, where he finished T2. He was in contention all week but then bogeyed the 72nd hole, so you better believe he’s fired up and ready to make amends.
Avoid: Patrick Cantlay—Cantlay is usually an easy pick in majors, but currently, he’s struggling. His major finishes are less than impressive, and while he’s still a shoo-in to make the cut, his short game has been exposed in multiple events, and everyone knows you need a sharp short game to win majors.
Tier 3
Joaquín Niemann—The hottest player in LIV Golf right now is hoping to make a splash in front of a major crowd. He’s won three of his last six starts on the Saudi-backed series and has only finished outside the top 20 once during that stretch. He doesn’t have a great major resume, but he did notch two PGA Tour wins before getting his estimated $100 million signing bonus for joining LIV. He’s still young, so this could be a breakout event for the 26-year-old.
Justin Rose—On the other side of the age spectrum is Justin Rose (isn’t golf awesome!). The 44-year-old is set to play in his 23rd PGA Championship and had a T6 at last year's event. He's had a solid 2025 thus far with three top-10s, including a second-place finish that almost ruined Rory’s big day at Augusta back in April. Don’t worry about his WD at the Truist; that is only an illness, not an injury.
Sepp Straka—The Austrian is making a name for himself this year, and even if he didn’t take the Truist this past Sunday in a duel with Shane Lowry, Straka would still be a great pick. He also won at The American Express in January and has added seven top-15s since then. He ranks 14th in driving accuracy and sixth in putting average, two areas in which a player needs to excel at Quail Hollow.
Avoid: Robert MacIntyre—MacIntyre is a fantastic player and still has a lot of promise. He’s a proven winner with victories at the Canadian and Scottish Opens last year, but his putting is simply not of a major caliber at this point. The greens will be fast and undulating at QH, and for a guy unfamiliar with the course, he’ll be at a huge disadvantage compared to other players in the field.
Tier 4
Russell Henley—Although his game has been a bit erratic over the years, the 36-year-old has five PGA wins, including the Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this year, and is a great pick in the Tier 4 or 5 range. He has only two missed cuts since the 2023 Open Championship and had a T10 at last year's Wells Fargo event at Quail Hollow. He is 16th in driving accuracy and 15th in putting average overall this year, and if he can muster his A-game this week, Henley could shock the world.
Taylor Pendrith—The long-hitting Canadian looks to cash a big check this week. He hasn’t had the best showings over the past month, but has put together a nice season following his breakout win last year at the Byron Nelson. Like many others, if he can get his putter hot, he’ll be tough to beat and at the very least, be around on Sunday.
Keegan Bradley—Bradley is still looking to validate himself as a playing captain at this year’s Ryder Cup, and nothing makes a stronger case than winning a major. His only missed cut this year was at The Masters, which isn’t great, but his six top-20s are encouraging. He’s also no stranger to QH over his illustrious career. No one grinds harder, so if he can put himself in the mix, he’s a sleeper to win the whole thing.
Avoid: Cam Smith—Overall, Smith has played decently in the smaller, shorter LIV events, but despite his obvious talent, it's hard to pick him these days in elite fields on elite courses. He does have three top-10s in the last three tournaments on LIV, but his inexperience with this course and second-to-last place spot in driving accuracy are working against him.
Tier 5
Keith Mitchell—You won’t find many people picking Keith Mitchell, which could work in your favor. The past two months have been great for him as he has five top-20 finishes, including a T2 in Punta Cana and a T7 this past week at the Truist. He’s played in 201 PGA Tour events during his career and has won more than $16.7 million in that time. Over $1 million of that has been in the last five events alone.
Thomas Detry—Europeans don’t have a great record at the PGA Championship, but given how small the world is getting, this isn’t a good reason for talented players like Thomas Detry. He had his first win earlier this year at the WM Phoenix Open and has continued with good play since then. I don’t think anyone expects him to win, but making the cut should be a given, and once a young guy like this makes it to the weekend, anything can happen.
Akshay Bhatia—Another young guy who can pull a major upset this week. His recent events haven’t been great, but being so young, he should have a short memory. His opening-round 63 last week just goes to show that he has it in him; it's just a matter of bringing it out when he needs it most.
Avoid: Michael Block—Many want “Blockie” to have a great week and pull off the greatest upset since Francis Ouimet, but the odds are severely against him. It’s hard to justify a pick here statistically. Of course, he has a sentimental story behind him, but that’s not enough for today’s high level of golf. Root for Michael Block, but don’t give up a valuable spot on your pool team.
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