The PGA Tour is making its way back to Texas this week for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
One of the longest-running tournaments on the schedule, this is the fifth edition being played at TPC Craig Ranch in suburban Dallas, and while there's not a ton of course history to go off of, there are certain trends we can pick up on to inform this week's rankings.
The main thing to focus on is that TPC Craig Ranch leads to a birdie-fest, with the four previous winning scores being 25-under, 26-under, 23-under, and 23-under. Also, a strong plurality of approach shots come over 200 yards, so being strong in long approach play is a good indicator of projected success at Craig Ranch.
The rankings are running hot, as we have now hit three straight weeks with a winner, bringing us to six on the season. I'm even happier with the team I noted as my favorite duo of the bunch from last week, Andrew Novak and Ben Griffin, coming out on top at the Zurich Classic.
This week's field at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson is not the strongest, but let's get the streak to four weeks.
Honorable Mentions: Jacob Bridgeman, Cam Davis, Nico Echavarria, Taylor Moore, Michael Thorbjornsen
9. Niklas Norgaard
A long hitter making the jump from the DP World Tour, Norgaard started to show some flashes last week with Jesper Svensson at the Zurich Classic.
Norgaard currently sits 12th in birdie or better percentage on the PGA Tour and ranks ninth in average proximity on approaches from over 200 yards away. If he finds a hot putting week, Norgaard has the firepower to put up a low score and come out of nowhere to surprise people this week.
8. Sami Valimaki
Valimaki is currently in the hottest stretch of his career, with three top-20 finishes in his last four starts (a missed cut last week at Zurich snapped his streak).
Valimaki's combination of solid approach play and strong putting makes him a good longshot pick, and if he can find a little bit of positive play off the tee, he should find his way climbing the leaderboard on the weekend.
7. Matt McCarty
McCarty may not be a perfect fit for Craig Ranch, but he finds his way onto the rankings through recent form.
McCarty has put up solid finishes in big events this year (T14 at The Masters, T20 at The Players), and his approach play has turned a corner since a cold start to the season.
6. Harry Hall
An early-season favorite of mine, Hall lines up well with Craig Ranch because he makes a lot of birdies.
He sits 8th on the PGA Tour in birdie or better percentage, and is much better than average in bogey avoidance. Hall is starting to bounce back a little bit from a cold streak through February and March, and his play around the greens should be able to keep him in this tournament.
5. Ryan Gerard
Gerard's well-rounded game has brought him a lot of success this year, including a ninth-place finish in Houston and a solo second at the Valero Texas Open.
Beyond the clear affinity for the state of Texas, Gerard has an above-average birdie or better percentage, while being 14th on Tour in total strokes gained per round. His T27 at the RBC Heritage shows us that he can somewhat hang with the big names, and in a weaker field, Gerard should rise to the top.
4. Jake Knapp
Knapp's strategy for this week will be to use his distance off the tee to try and overpower TPC Craig Ranch.
While distance is his biggest skill, his approach play from over 200 yards ranks among the top 25, and he sits 14th in birdie or better percentage. Especially coming off a strong week with Frankie Capan III in New Orleans, Knapp's solid 2025 should continue at the Byron Nelson.
3. Stephan Jaeger
In three appearances at TPC Craig Ranch, Jaeger has a pair of top-20 finishes, somehow with negative approach play in those years.
I don't know why, but something about this week feels like it'll play similar to Vidanta Vallarta without the emphasis on driving distance, which should play right into Jaeger's hands.
A solid "good, not great" player on the PGA Tour, Jaeger may not be exciting, but his all-around game should bring him success this week.
2. Si Woo Kim
Si Woo Kim's T8 finish at the RBC Heritage should have been better, but a disappointing 74 on Sunday kept him out of the race for the trophy.
He has played well at TPC Craig Ranch the past couple of years, finishing T2 and T13 in his last two appearances. He has a good feel for the course, his birdie or better percentage is in the top 10 on Tour right now, and his recent play feels like Kim is ready to pick up his 4th career win on Tour this week.
1. Scottie Scheffler
It's not a strong field this week, Scheffler's results have been strong at Craig Ranch (T5 in his last appearance in 2023), and he has yet to finish outside of the top 25 in any event this year.
This week feels like a bit of a crossroads for the world No. 1. If he's able to pick off the Byron Nelson this week, then the Scheffler vs. McIlroy matchup at the rest of the majors will gain a ton of steam.
We're calling for Scottie's winless streak to end on Sunday.