Five Golf Predictions that are sure to happen in 2021 PGA Tour season

Here are five big golf predictions for the 2021 PGA Season. Some bold, some not so bold. Hopefully, it will be a more normal year for players and fans, alike.

If you live north of the Mason-Dixon line, you are likely in the throes of golf withdrawal. Across the midwest, snow is blanketing fairways and greens and the temperatures hover around freezing.

Golf is not in front of the mind as usual for many. While the 2021 season officially started months ago – and there will technically be two Masters in the same season – January in Hawaii marks, for most, the official start. In other words, you start seeing tournaments you actually recognize.

So, as the “season” kicks off in Hawaii, what golf predictions will 2021 bring for players and fans?

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Callaway will get a Major Championship with Jon Rahm

Jon Rahm is too good to not be a Major winner. He’s currently #2 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). But how many times does the #2 player in the world change out his entire bag and ball set up? Does that sound weird to you? It does to me.

Callaway no doubt is planning on making Rahm the centerpiece of their marketing efforts. They must be throwing a boatload of money at him. Rahm, for his part, says he’s loving the clubs and particularly the Chrome X ball.

I’ve been pretty rough on Callaway for their brand management blunders and nebulous product lines. This feels like a tipping point. If Rahm wins a Major and behaves all year, it could be the boost Callaway needs to solidify their reputation as a brand for Tour champions, not just weekend golfers.

If Rahm struggles, he will have not only placed his own future in doubt but Callaway’s reputation as well.

If he wins a Major, we might see more big names look at Callaway and give the brand a cushion on eager challenger brands. Srixon and Bridgestone are nipping at their heels. Rahm may be the key to elevating Callaway on Tour and finally giving them a marquee player to replace Phil.

Tiger will not win a Major

Depending on your love of Tiger, this may or may not be a surprising prediction. I like Tiger. I was in awe of his last Master’s win. It is one of the greatest golf comeback stories of all time.

That said, Father Time waits for no one. Remember how you started getting really bad hangovers in your late 20s? One weekend you could bounce back and the next you couldn’t get out of bed?

That happens with the body in the mid-40s. One day you can play 36 without a hint of an ache, the next you can barely make it to the bathroom in the morning. The switch flips in your mid-40s.

I realize Tiger is in tremendous shape. He’s also had multiple major surgeries on his back and knees. That stuff turns south, and turns south fast, even for the best athletes in the world.

Can Tiger compete at Majors? Sure, but I suspect he’ll only be on the first page at one Major this year and never finish better than T3. I would love to be wrong, but I think his last Masters win was the last Major hurrah for the greatest player to ever pick up a club.

The USGA and R&A will seriously consider, and possibly test, bifurcation

Yes, Bryson will once again be a topic of discussion. I also think other players will emerge who are following his lead with the ultra bomb and gouge approach. We will routinely see drives of 350 from a host of players. This will make traditionalists (who run the USGA and R&A) transition from uncomfortable to angry.

The long ball is fun, but it starts to shift the focus from skill to power. Yes, I know it takes extreme skill to hit it 350 yards. But the USGA, R&A, and PGA want golf to remain a sport showcasing skill overpower.

It’s also notable that legends like Nicklaus and Player have come out in favor of bifurcation. This isn’t some intellectual exercise. It’s been under study for years and is now reaching a breaking point.

Almost every sport has different rules for professionals and amateurs. In baseball, pros can’t use composite bats. In football, the NFL ball has a larger circumference. In basketball, the 3-point line is further back for the NBA.

All these differences are aimed at making the pro game require more skill.

Golf is next. The likely target is the ball. I don’t think they will dictate a universal ball, but I do think there will be capped limits on performance. Much like drivers have COR limits, the ball will have performance standards it can’t surpass.

However, the balls for amateurs like you and me will continue to get better.

Phil Mickelson will cause the Champions Tour to reconsider their age requirement

Phil dominated in his brief flirtation with the Champions Tour last year. While I expect Phil to be a regular on the PGA Tour, I think we will see him start piling up Champions Tour victories at a pace that irritates other competitors.

Eventually, the age limit will move from 50 to 55. It has to. There are too many good golfers and modern equipment and medicine are extending the careers of players well into their 40s. All it takes is for one or two guys to dominate so much that it starts to become uncompetitive for most of the field.

Phil might be that guy.

I suspect we will start to hear about raising the age to 55. It makes sense, it will keep the Champions Tour competitive, and it should increase fan interest if they know the winner every week isn’t simply the youngest guy in the field who is still bombing it over 300 yards.

By creating a little more separation between the two tours, it should help both.

Golf architecture will embrace environmental management in a big way

Golf course designers already have a host of environmental standards they must meet. Still, a new golf course is most often seen as an assault on the environment.

It will be a focus going forward that existing and new courses have to meet stringent environmental standards. This will create a new era in course design that favors natural landscape over moving dirt.

I recently played at Big Cedar where they have taken both approaches. Tiger’s Payne’s Valley required enormous amounts of blasting limestone, creating ponds and streams, and moving earth. Meanwhile, its sister course at Ozarks National is a lesson in architecture minimalism.

Both are spectacular, as noted in my recent review of Big Cedar. But the Coore and Crenshaw design at Ozarks National feels like the future of golf design in the age of environmentalism.

Where Payne’s Valley created golf holes through brute strength, Ozarks National simply laid them over a topographic map and did some gardening. In doing so, Ozarks National has numerous quirky characteristics. There are unseen runouts, uneven lies and fairways, natural grasses and dunes that serve as hazards, and a feeling of walking along a trail.

Payne’s Valley is meticulously laid out in resort course fashion. Everything is exactly where you’d expect it to be. Fairways are wide and flat. Elevation changes are plentiful but calculated. Landing zones are easy to identify.

Golf courses attract housing and people. Those things guarantee the EPA will get involved. This in turn leads to regulations from the government.

Next. Which events does Tiger own?. dark

I think Coore and Crenshaw are the visionaries for the next 50 years in golf architecture. Whether it’s simply aesthetics or environmental regulations, watch for new courses to embrace minimalism, native vegetation, existing drainage, and fewer earthmovers.

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